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Ten years ago a clean R34 GT-R was a dream with a price you could at least picture. This January one sold for $442,000, more than a brand new Porsche 911 GT3 RS.

So the question at every car meet is fair. Is the JDM market a bubble, and is it about to pop?

The honest answer is It's splitting in two, and which half your dream car lives in changes everything.

The Top End Is Still Setting Records

At the very top, nothing has cooled. A 2003 Honda NSX-R sold for €934,375 at Lake Como in May 2025, about $1.06 million and a record for any Honda.

Then on 31 October 2026, Ayrton Senna's own 1991 NSX sold in London for £871,250, roughly $1.17 million. That's another NSX record, set in a market most people are calling flat.

The R34 that made headlines in January was a 2002 M-Spec Nür in Millennium Jade, one of just 285 built. It made $442,000 on Bring a Trailer with around 37,000 miles on the clock.

These cars aren't being bought as toys. They're being bought the way people buy an old Ferrari or an early 911, as history with a chassis number.

The Middle Is Quietly Leaking

Drop below the trophy cars and the picture changes. In the first half of 2024, the R32 GT-R, the first NSX, the FD RX-7, the Mk4 Supra, the Integra Type R and the S2000 all lost value.

A good-condition Mk4 Supra Turbo is now worth roughly 12% less than it was a year ago. FD RX-7 values peaked during the pandemic and have settled ever since.

The main index tracking Japanese collector cars hasn't moved for two straight quarters this year. Inside it, the R32 GT-R slipped 3% in three months while the NSX climbed 10%.

That's not a crash. It's the sound of air slowly leaving the cars regular enthusiasts actually buy.

Lake Como Was the Reality Check

In May 2026, five R34 GT-Rs went up at a no-reserve auction on the shores of Lake Como. Every single one sold below its low estimate.

The five together were expected to make around €3 million. They made about €1.5 million.

A 2002 V-Spec II Nür went for €207,000. Back in 2021, a near-new example of the same model sold in Japan for around $549,000.

The cars weren't the problem. The room was, full of European supercar collectors rather than the people who had an R34 on their bedroom wall.

That's the real lesson. JDM prices now depend on who's bidding as much as on what's being sold.

Why This Isn't 1990 All Over Again

Every bubble conversation ends up at the late-1980s Ferrari crash. A Daytona that cost $15,000 in 1975 was worth around $500,000 by the end of 1989.

Then Japan's property bubble burst, the money dried up, and Ferrari values fell by more than half. It took years to recover.

The difference is who was buying. That boom was driven by investors who piled in after the 1987 stock crash looking for somewhere to park money. Today's JDM buyers are mostly enthusiasts who wanted these cars long before they were expensive.

A better comparison is the air-cooled Porsche 911. The 993 jumped about 31% between 2014 and 2017, peaked in 2018, then sat flat and softened in places. That's almost exactly what the JDM icons are doing now.

What's still holding prices up

The American 25-year import rule releases a new batch of cars every year, and with them a fresh wave of attention. The last R34s and S15 Silvias only become US road legal month by month through 2027.

Japan exported a record number of used cars in 2025, helped by a weak yen sitting around 150 to the dollar. Anything good is leaving the country.

And the buyers are young. Four of the five cars Gen Z most often asks to insure are Japanese, and those buyers aren't going anywhere.

What could crack it

Money is still expensive. The wider collector market sits around 17% below its late-2022 high, and cars under $250,000 are the weakest part of it. That's exactly where most JDM heroes live.

The easy profit is gone too. After shipping, duty and compliance, the typical JDM model now roughly breaks even between Japan and the US, so importers can't buy cheap and flip anymore.

The Prediction That Did Pop

In January 2022, one of the biggest names in car valuation predicted that a pedigreed Japanese car like a Skyline would crack $2 million at auction that year.

It still hasn't happened. The Skyline GT-R auction record is the R34 Paul Walker drove in the 2009 Fast & Furious film, which sold for $1.357 million in 2023.

If anything popped, it was the hype. The cars are still worth a fortune. The fantasy that they only ever go up is what died.

So Is It a Bubble?

Not in the way people mean. A bubble pops all at once. What's happening here is a split.

The rarest, best-documented and most famous cars are being re-priced as blue chips, and they're staying there. The ordinary examples, the driver-grade R32s, Supras and RX-7s, are sliding slowly back toward earth.

If you want a poster car with perfect paperwork, waiting probably won't save you money. If you want a 90s Japanese car to actually drive, time is finally on your side.

Watch 2027. When the last R34 Nürs become legal in the US, we'll find out if America still sets the price, or if that premium was spent years ago.

#carmarket

The JDM Bubble Has Popped.